DAY-0 SOURCE
FORM 247-B · exam wks 1–6 · May 26 — Jul 3 '25. Every Day-0 figure copied, none recomputed.
Re-evaluate new-patient acquisition, collections, and cost. Compare against baseline. Same instruments, same locations, same finance team in the room. The numbers either moved or they didn't — and where they didn't, this sheet says so first.
DAY-0 SOURCE
FORM 247-B · exam wks 1–6 · May 26 — Jul 3 '25. Every Day-0 figure copied, none recomputed.
WINDOWS
Day 0: trailing 6 mo Dec '24 — May '25. Retest: trailing 6 mo Mar — Aug '26. Two instruments run on 12 months, both reported.
POPULATION
12-location group · 11 same-store — the sites trading at Day 0. Parkway-11 opened Mar '26, has no Day-0 reading, never enters a delta.
IN THE ROOM
CFO · controller · director of ops — Thu Sep 10 '26 · 90 min. Same three seats as the Day-0 reading; one occupant changed.
VITALS — DAY 0 vs RETEST · SAME INSTRUMENTS · DESK RATES STILL HAVE NO PUBLISHED BENCHMARK
| MEASURE | DAY 0 | RETEST | Δ | READING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New patients / mo — same-store, 11 loc | 213 | 244 | ▲ 14.6% | moved |
| all-in, incl. Parkway-11 (opened Mar '26) | 213 | 259 | ▲ 21.6% | reported, not claimed |
| Collections / mo — same-store | $1.03M | $1.071M | ▲ 4.0% | moved |
| all-in, incl. Parkway-11 | $1.03M | $1.135M | ▲ 10.2% | reported, not claimed |
| NP acquisition cost — frozen 12-mo spend basis | $246 | $234 | ▼ 4.9% | moved |
| 6-mo basis, window-matched to the other vitals | $246 | $221 | ▼ 10.2% | shown, not headlined |
| NP acquisition cost — all-in, 6-mo basis against us | $246 | $253 | ▲ 2.8% | wrong way |
| Source attribution coverage | 2 of 12 | 10 of 13 | ▲ 8 channels | moved |
| Answer rate, per desk — frozen definition | 78% | 81% | ▲ 3 pt | moved — restated |
| staffed hours only, both sides restated | 83% | 86% | ▲ 3 pt | second basis, printed |
| Booking rate, per desk — sit week, same 3 desks | 35% | 41% | ▲ 6 pt | moved · n=63 |
| continuous instrument, 11 desks, 26 wks | no reading | 39% | — | n=3,340 |
| Case acceptance (presented → scheduled) against us | 43% | 41% | ▼ 2 pt | wrong way |
| Broken appointments (no-show + late cancel) no movement claimed | 22.4% | 21.6% | ▼ 0.8 pt | inside series noise |
Eleven, not twelve. The group runs 12 locations; 11 were trading at Day 0. Parkway-11 opened March '26 and has no Day-0 reading — it never will. Every delta above is same-store across those 11. All-in rows exist so the CFO sees the whole P&L; they are not growth and are not presented as growth. Per location that is 19.4 new patients/loc/mo at Day 0 and 22.2 at retest, both on 11 sites. Methodology, sheet 3 §02③.
Six moved for the group, two against it, one not at all — and one desk on sheet 4 didn't move either. A retest in which every vital improved would mean the instruments were rebuilt to flatter the work, which is exactly what freezing the definitions at Day 0 exists to prevent. Reactivation (patients dormant 18+ months) is excluded from both sides of every acquisition figure.
THIS SHEET IN ONE LINE
Same-store volume is up 14.6% and collections up 4.0% on instruments nobody rebuilt to make that true — but the patients bought cost more all-in than the group's own Day-0 patient, accept less treatment, and produce less in their first 90 days. The acquisition system works. The economics of what it acquires got slightly worse, and the broken-appointment win we would have liked to claim is not one this instrument can carry."Same instruments" is not a sentiment. It is a frozen definitions document, a re-run of the same extract against the same systems, and a written disclosure every time reality forced a definition to move.
A retest is only a retest if the thing being re-measured is the thing that was measured. Before a single figure was pulled, the definitions document issued with Form 247-B on 25 July '25 was read aloud against each current source system and each instrument logged as HELD or CHANGED. Seven held. Three changed, and all three are expanded on the next sheet with both readings printed. Nothing on this list was quietly adjusted to make a delta look better; where a definition moved, the less flattering reading is the one that carries the headline.
| INSTRUMENT | SOURCE SYSTEM | DEFINITION FROZEN AT DAY 0 | HELD? |
|---|---|---|---|
| New patients | PMS | First completed visit ever with the group; deduplicated by person, not by chart. Bookings and leads are not new patients. | held |
| Collections | PMS → GL | Posted collections tied to GL 4000, net of 4100 contractual adjustments. Production reported separately, never blended in. | held |
| NP acquisition cost | GL + vendor invoices | Loaded spend (media + fees + tooling + attributed coordinator labor), 12-month window, ÷ new patients completing a first visit. | window strained |
| Attribution coverage | census | A channel counts only if a booked patient can be traced to it end-to-end in a system the client owns. No partial credit. | rule held |
| Answer rate | phone logs | Calls answered by a human ÷ all calls on all lines, 12 months. After-hours counted unanswered — that is when patients book. | reported two ways |
| Booking rate | call scoring rubric | Answered → offer made → booked, scored on the intake rubric, double-scored, agreement rate reported whatever it is. | held |
| Case acceptance | PMS tx plans | Dollars presented vs dollars scheduled within 30 days. Same-day counts at presentation; unscheduled carries forward, never written off. | held |
| Broken appointments | PMS statuses | No-show + late cancel, combined, because the historical split was unreliable across locations. Combined then; combined now. | held |
| Sit-week protocol | on site | One week, same three desks — top, median and bottom by collections at Day 0 — every NP-opportunity call scored. The desks stay fixed at their Day-0 ranking even though the current ranking differs; re-picking them would break the comparison. | held |
| Population | site roster | The sites trading at Day 0 with trailing six-month history. Any location opened during the engagement is reported on its own line and is never blended into a growth rate. | stated explicitly |
Why "held" is a finding and not a formality. Seven of ten definitions survived fourteen months of an engagement in which we were actively changing the systems those definitions read from. That is not luck; it is the reason the definitions document exists as a separate artifact with its own change log rather than as a paragraph in a report nobody re-opens. The three that moved are disclosed rather than absorbed, because an instrument that changes silently produces a delta that means nothing — and a delta that means nothing is worse than no delta, since somebody will act on it.
02 · THE THREE PLACES A DEFINITION HAD TO MOVE — DISCLOSED IN FULL. IF WE PRINTED ONLY THE FLATTERING READING, THE RETEST WOULD BE WORTHLESS.
03 · SAMPLE SIZE AND WINDOW — STATED FOR EVERY RATE ON SHEET 1
| RATE | DAY-0 n · WINDOW | RETEST n · WINDOW | CARRIES A DECISION? |
|---|---|---|---|
| New patients / mo | 1,278 NP · 6 mo · 11 loc | 1,464 NP · 6 mo · 11 loc | yes |
| Collections / mo | 6 monthly closes | 6 monthly closes · controller-signed | yes |
| NP acquisition cost | 12 mo GL + invoices | 12 mo GL + invoices (frozen basis) | yes — on the frozen basis |
| Attribution coverage | census, 12 channels | census, 13 channels | yes — exhaustive, not sampled |
| Answer rate | ≈46,200 calls · 12 mo | ≈49,800 calls · 12 mo | yes |
| Booking rate — sit week | 57 answered NP calls · 1 wk | 63 answered NP calls · 1 wk | no — n<100, like-for-like only |
| Booking rate — continuous | none — instrument did not exist | 3,340 answered NP calls · 26 wks | yes — but no Day-0 comparator |
| Case acceptance | 4,910 plans presented · 6 mo | 5,480 plans presented · 6 mo | yes |
| Broken appointments | 31,400 appts · 6 mo | 34,900 appts · 6 mo | n is ample; the monthly series is not |
Why a large n can still fail to carry a decision. Broken appointments are measured across 34,900 scheduled appointments — the n is not the problem. The vital is a six-point monthly series, and the Day-0 series ran 21.0% to 23.6% with a standard deviation of 0.93 points. A 0.8-point move sits inside one standard deviation of the instrument's own noise, so we do not claim it and we do not let anyone else claim it either. The last three months of the retest window average 20.4% against 22.5% for the last three of the Day-0 window. That is suggestive. It is also not the instrument we froze, so it stays in this footnote rather than in the delta column, and it gets re-read at the annual retest when the frozen window has moved past the fix.
| DESK | NP-OPP D0 → RT | ANSWERED | ANSWER RATE | OFFER MADE | BOOKED | BOOKING RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North — 04 (best desk at Day 0) answer rate did not move | 26 → 28 | 25 → 27 | 96% → 96% | 88% → 90% | 11 → 13 | 44% → 48% |
| Central — 01 (median at Day 0) | 20 → 22 | 17 → 20 | 85% → 91% | 71% → 80% | 6 → 8 | 35% → 40% |
| Riverside — 09 (bottom at Day 0) | 22 → 21 | 15 → 16 | 68% → 76% | 52% → 69% | 3 → 5 | 20% → 31% |
| THREE-DESK BLENDED | 68 → 71 | 57 → 63 | 84% → 89% | 72% → 81% | 20 → 26 | 35% → 41% |
The best desk did not move, and that is the correct result. North-04 answered 96% of new-patient-opportunity calls at Day 0 and answers 96% now. There was nowhere for it to go: the ceiling on this instrument is not an industry chart — dentistry publishes none for desk answer rate — it is this network's own best desk, and North-04 is that desk. The gains came from the bottom of the distribution, which is where they were available. Best-to-worst booking spread closed from 24 points to 17 and remains the largest single variance in this file.
Denominators, so the two desk documents can be read together. The answer rates above cover new-patient-opportunity calls only, at three desks, in one week. Form 247-K reports Riverside at 81% for week 29 — that is all calls on all lines. Both use the frozen definition; the populations differ, and a reader comparing 76% here to 81% there is comparing two correct numbers measuring two different things.
| WORKPAPER VITAL | DAY 0 | RETEST | Δ | GL / SOURCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collection rate (of net production) | 92.2% | 92.9% | ▲ 0.7 pt | 4000 ÷ (PMS − 4100) |
| Contractual adjustments, % of gross against us | 13.4% | 14.0% | ▲ 0.6 pt | 4100 |
| 90-day production per new patient against us | $612 | $588 | ▼ 3.9% | PMS cohort |
| Collected value / NP at 90 days against us | $574 | $551 | ▼ 4.0% | 90-day prod. × 93.7% |
| Payer mix — FFS / cash share of production against us | 36% | 34% | ▼ 2 pt | moves 4100 → 4000 |
Four of five in the same direction, by the same mechanism. Contractual adjustments up, production per patient down, collected value per patient down, FFS/cash mix down: that is one thing, not four. A larger share of first visits are unestablished and insured patients, and unestablished insured patients write down more, accept less, and produce less. It is the standing price of buying volume rather than a defect in the buying, and it is printed at the same weight as the volume gain on sheet 1 because a CFO who learns it from us in September is a different conversation from one who finds it in a schedule in March.
SUBJECTIVE — WHAT LEADERSHIP REPORTS AT MONTH 14
"The phones feel different and the board slide finally reconciles. Nobody argues about the marketing number any more; they argue about chair capacity."
OBJECTIVE — WHAT THE SAME INSTRUMENTS READ, SAME-STORE ACROSS 11 LOCATIONS
New patients 213 → 244 (+14.6%) at $234 fully loaded on the frozen 12-month basis (−4.9%); collections $1.03M → $1.071M (+4.0%); attribution coverage 2 of 12 → 10 of 13 channels; answer rate +3 pt on either consistent basis. Against the group: all-in cost per new patient $246 → $253, case acceptance 43% → 41%, collected value per new patient $574 → $551, payer mix 36% → 34%, contractual adjustments 13.4% → 14.0%. Broken appointments did not move by an amount this instrument can carry, and the best desk did not move at all.
ASSESSMENT
The constraint diagnosed at Day 0 has moved. Demand is now measurable, the desks convert it at rates the group can see, and the binding limit sits inside the building — chair-hours at two pods and a phone at a third. What the acquisition bought is worth 4% less per patient than what the group already had, and that is the standing price of volume rather than a defect in it. Four of the five workpaper vitals moved against the group in the same direction and by the same mechanism, which is the signature of a mix shift, not of four separate problems. The twelfth location is eight months into a ramp and is deliberately absent from every figure above.
PLAN
Deferred — by design. This document does not recommend continuing or concluding. Form 610-Q puts both cases on one page with these numbers in front of you, and you decide.
WHAT YOU KEEP — UNCHANGED FROM FORM 247-B, RE-CONFIRMED AT RETEST
FAQ Q.10, kept literally: "You keep the baseline reading and the instrumentation either way." The retest does not change that; it gives the baseline a second column.
NO CONTINUE / CONCLUDE RECOMMENDATION APPEARS IN THIS DOCUMENT. IT IS A READING, NOT AN ARGUMENT FOR OUR OWN RENEWAL. THE DECISION DOCUMENT IS FORM 610-Q, AND IT CARRIES THE CASE FOR CONCLUDING PRE-FILLED.
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EXAMINING PARTNER, ADMEN
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CONTROLLER — RE-DERIVED DAY-0 VITALS 2 & 3 FROM SOURCE
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RECEIVED — CLIENT CFO / OWNER · DATE